“When the U.S. housing bubble burst more than a decade ago, it brought the global economy to its knees. It turned out that the multiyear housing boom through the early 2000s was hiding skeletons. Homebuyers, driven by a fear of missing out on home price gains, were stretching themselves well beyond their financial means. And zealous lenders were giving out mortgages (or better put, subprime mortgages) to folks who historically wouldn’t have qualified. As that credit rushed in, it helped to drive the housing boom. However, as the housing market corrected, those bad loans created a foreclosure crisis that took many of the nation’s biggest financial firms, like Bank of America and Citigroup, to the brink.”
What’s causing this bubble?
“At first glance, one might assume the COVID-19 recession dragged down the March 2020 numbers. It didn’t. The ratios created by researchers at Florida Atlantic University were essentially the same in January 2020 as in March 2020. Simply put: March 2020 is a good point of reference.
The difference between March 2020 and March 2022 speaks to how historically fierce the housing market has been during the pandemic. In a matter of two years, we’ve flipped from a normal housing market into one that is historically overpriced.
That said, some regional housing markets could be in full-blown housing bubbles. At the very least, many markets are priced exorbitantly compared to what local income levels can support. That’s what Fortune found after looking at an analysis by the Real Estate Initiative at Florida Atlantic University. Each month, researchers at the university calculate how overpriced or underpriced home prices are in America’s 100 largest housing markets.
In order to find a housing market that closely resembles the current market, you’d have to travel back to the years leading into the 2008 housing crash. Back in March 2007, 99 of the nation’s 100 largest housing markets were overpriced; 40 markets were overpriced by at least 30%, and 19 by at least 50%.”
Florida has 8 cities in the top 55 according this study. With Fort Myers and Lakeland leading the charge with 50%. The graph below shows Fort Lauderdale and Miami. The average price and the expected price have been increasing growing apart since the pandemic.
With salaries remaining similar, the housing market overpriced, inflation/mortgage rates rising at a hysterically pace, how long does this continue until the market “burst”? Seems like only time will tell.